Gartner - Generative AI Cresting the Peak of Inflated Expectations

August 20, 2023

As of August 16, Gartner has identified generative AI as cresting the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" on the 2023 Hype Cycle.

See the Gartner press release.

Generative AI now sits at the top of the roller coaster, clustered with Cloud-Native and AI-Assisted Software Engineering.

The Hype Cycle analyzes and tracks emergent technologies as they move through 5 expected phases:

  • Innovation Trigger
  • Peak of Inflated Expectations
  • Trough of Disillusionment
  • Slope of Enlightenment
  • Plateau of Productivity

On occassion a technology may be removed from the Hype Cycle entirely. And some, like neuro-symbolic AI are estimated to be 10 years from the Plateau phrase.

Gartner estimates generative AI is 2-5 years from the Plateau of Productivity.

Predictably, media are already producing articles about how ChatGPT was "hyped." Given the widespread knowledge of the Hype Cycle, it would be nice to see media abstain from co-creating the hype phase, and do more to alert readers to pending phase shifts.